Unintelligence on Iran and Iraq.
"If Iran had a nuclear weapon, it'd be a dangerous threat to world peace," Bush said a couple of weeks ago at a press conference with Putin, "So I told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you (Russia) ought to be interested" in ensuring Iran not gain the capacity to develop such weapons.
(avoid WWIII, NAAAAH. Bring it on BABY! We've already got 2 countries going at it...)
"...facing clear evidence of peril, we cannot wait for the final proof -- the smoking gun -- that could come in the form of a mushroom cloud." President Bush, October 7, 2002.
(Shitake mushrooms? mmmmmm.....)
Both quotes give the impression that Iraq and Iran, respectively, are on the cusp of developing nuclear weapons -- or, at the very least, that these countries could have the bomb soon and we wouldn't know it until a mushroom cloud blossomed above our heads. THE SKY IS FALLING.
The problem: both quotes also came after National Intelligence Estimates (NIE), the collective judgement of all US intelligence agencies, issued reports to the contrary. In the case of Iraq in 2002, the (top secret) NIE report, published days before the quote above, suggested Iraq "with moderate confidence does not have a nuclear weapon or sufficient material to make one, but is likely to have a weapon by 2007 - 2009". Digging a little further, no one agency could point to evidence that warrants the assertion that Iraq could have developed a nuclear weapon at all. Except, perhaps, the now debuked aluminum tubes. Later, Slam-dunk Tenet suggested that language was inserted in the NIE as a result of political pressure.
So here we go again, this time with Iran. The Bush scare tactic du jour: World War III. The NIE problem: Iran halted it's nuclear program four years ago.
What's scarier, a mushroom cloud or World War III? Hmmmm. The mushroom cloud helped make the case for the invasion of Iraq, despite the statement's clear conflicts with reality. Was Bush trying to do the same with the Iran statement? Most people think the idea of invading Iran is ludicrous given we are already in Afghanistan and Iraq. Bombing, perhaps, possible. Still, behind the scenes info suggests again and again an invasion is viewed as a viable option by the Bush Administration. Typically, I'd discount such "unsubstantiated rumors". But, with this Administration, that might be a costly mistake.
Whether Bush has taken an invasion of Iran off the table is not material. What is scary is this administration has chosen, at least twice now, to twist benign intelligence, data that is GOOD NEWS for the world, into scary news. Mushroom Cloud, WWIII is coming tomorrow news. Why twist the data? To fit Bush's own preconceived notion and agenda. That's exactly why scientists use double blind technique when gathering facts and data. Bush utilizes a different double blind: See no evil, hear no evil, shout "MUSHROOM CLOUD" as loud as you can. Once everyone is scared crapless say, "well, not really, isn't that good news?" (Insert V for victory fingers here)
Do we ever learn?"